Sometimes the numbers are wrong. We knew that Louisiana Tech's defense would fail to contain the Golden Eagles, but no one predicted the utter collapse of Tech's highly rated offense. Southern Mississippi outplayed Tech in almost every facet of the game. The Dogs still have a championship to play for, but it will be an uphill struggle.

Western Kentucky is playing their best ball of the year. Maybe their best football ever. They are ranked no. 14 by the S&P+ (Tech is no. 44), and Tech will have to find a few miracles to pull off the upset (like a 54 yard field goal).

Taking a look at the Five Factors, we get a picture of two powerhouse offenses against WKU's overall good defense and Tech's anemic defense. So far, the familiar storyline of Tech's bend-all-the-way-back defense has held true, but the Hilltoppers will look to contest that with the no. 11 most explosive passsing offense in the country. WKU is one of the only teams with a passing game as good or better than the Dogs, and they will score early and often.

Offensive shootouts notwithstanding, the most concerning thing about WKU is their rush defense. They have the no. 2 rushing defense, allowing successes on only 33% of rushes. This is very bad news, because it's the exact formula that Southern Mississippi used last week. Take away the running game, and the passing game collapses under the pressure.

WKU also features one of the best returners in the country, Kylen Towner. It's very likely that the Dogs will give up at least one touchdown to special teams if they choose to kick to him. Tech will have to score on almost every drive, because WKU will score on almost every drive, which means that Tech will need at least two defensive stops. Every single snap is crucial.

Tech has to get turnovers, and then turn those into points. Tech will need to be creative on offense to minimize WKU's rushing defense.

WKU hasn't scored less than 40 points since September in the loss to Vanderbilt, and there's no reason to believe that'll change. S&P+ gives them a 77% chance to win with a final score of 40.2-27.5. If the Bulldog team we saw in Hattiesburg shows up, it'll be a lot worse, but if Tech rallies, they can make it a respectable game.

Regardless of the outcome, the Bulldogs still have a lot to play for this season, so I hope they have learned some valuable lessons from Southern Mississippi and are ready to move on.