As Tech prepares for its matchup with NC State in Raleigh this Saturday, the narrative is clear. The Wolfpack entered the season with high expectations but were thoroughly outclassed by Tennessee this past weekend in a 51-10 defeat. This loss not only dropped NC State out of the AP Top 25 but the Wolfpack fell so far as to not receive a single vote in the poll.
For NC State, this week's game against Louisiana Tech is a crucial "get right" opportunity. Following the Bulldogs' visit, the Wolfpack will face a ranked Clemson team on the road before returning home to play a now-ranked Northern Illinois squad.
But instead of focusing solely on NC State's previous and upcoming opponents, let’s revisit their season opener against Western Carolina.
Despite securing a win, NC State was challenged by the Catamounts, who held the lead going into the fourth quarter. Maybe struggling with an FCS team is something Tech and NC State fans can bond over at the tailgate Saturday.
Some of Western Carolina’s success came from their ground game. The Catamounts averaged an impressive 6.3 yards per rush attempt, a figure that would place them among the Top 25 in the FBS rankings:
But most of that rushing success came from quarterback scrambles, one of which went for a 50-yard gain. Outside of those QB rushes, Western Carolina only ran the ball 13 times.
So instead let’s look at the defensive side of the ball to explain Western Carolina’s almost upset over the Wolfpack.
“Havoc” is a stat that refers to the percentage of plays where the defense records a tackle for loss (TFL), forces a fumble, intercepts a pass, or breaks up a pass. Specifically, we’ll focus on front seven havoc, narrowing the scope down to just TFLs and forced fumble.
This season, NC State is the second-worst team in the country at preventing front seven havoc. A full 23% of their offensive plays ended either behind the line of scrimmage or with a fumble. Granted, this stat was notably inflated by the Tennessee game, where the Volunteer defense caused front-seven havoc 41% of the time.
But even Western Carolina caused front seven havoc 16.7% of the time in their game against NC State, with nine TFLs and three forced fumbles. So even excluding the Tennessee game, NC State remains in the Bottom 10 in the nation at preventing front seven havoc.
And fortunately, this is somewhere that Tech might be able to take advantage.
Last season, Tech’s front seven havoc stat was 9.5%, which ranked 88th in college football. This year, although it is a one game sample size, the Bulldogs have improved to 14.8%:
Kolbe Fields’ performance was probably the biggest positive talking point following Tech’s win over Nicholls. The LSU transfer had 2.5 TFLs on 66 snaps played, meaning Fields had a 3.8% havoc rate by himself.
The hope coming into this season was that new Defensive Coordinator Jeremiah Johnson could come in and turn the defense around. One game into the season and that seems to be the case, with a large assist from Fields.
Of course, after only beating FCS Nicholls by eight, a lot of Tech fans are assuming this next game against a P4 opponent is a lost cause. But NC State's struggle against their own FCS opponent stemmed from issues that Tech might be able to exploit.
We’ve seen the Bulldog defense create havoc this year. So the key to this game will be whether Jack Turner is healthy enough to play to be able to exploit that other weakness - running quarterbacks. Although Blake Baker did rattle off a 21-yard scramble last week, he does not match Turner’s ability to take off with the ball.
So if Turner is healthy and can make a significant impact, Tech could have a chance to pull off an upset. Otherwise, the Bulldogs will need to rely heavily on their defense creating that havoc to keep them in the game.
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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.
