With an over/under in Vegas hovering around 68 points, this week's match-up between Tech and North Texas is expected to be a high-scoring, shootout-style affair. And that's for a good reason: The two teams facing off in Joe Aillet Stadium this Saturday boast two of C-USA's best pass offenses:
Like with any prolific passing attack, those numbers are partially due just how often passing plays are called:
As you'd expect, pass heavy playcalling results in fewer opportunities for the run game. But remarkably, both teams have improved on the ground from a year ago. The Bulldogs went from 3.9 yards per carry (YPC) in 2018 to 5.1 YPC in 2019. The Mean Green's improvement was less drastic (4.3 YPC in 2018 to 4.7 YPC this year), but that was still good enough to become the 5th most effective running game in the conference.
On paper, North Texas and Tech have eerily similar backfields. Both teams have seen the emergence of a workhorse that's taken 34% of the teams rushing attempts and average over 6.5 YPC: UNT's Tre Siggers and Tech's Justin Henderson. Both teams each also have two support backs that see 14-18% of the carries and average just over 4.5 YPC: Deandre Torrey and Loren Easly for the Mean Green, Jaqwis Dancy and Israel Tucker for the Bulldogs.
The biggest difference on stat sheet is in the touchdown category. While Tech has reached the endzone 19 times on the ground, North Texas has only seven rushing touchdowns. Justin Henderson by himself has more rushing TDs than the Mean Green.
This disparity is due to two things: explosiveness and red zone playcalling.
On the year, Tech has 35 plays that went longer than 20 yards, and nine plays that gained at least 40. Compare that to North Texas, who has 48 plays that went 20+ yards, and 14 that went for longer than 40. About 34% of those 20+ yard plays ended up in the endzone, so the Mean Green were able to score more often without feeling the effects of a short field in the red zone.
But even when UNT gets close to the goal line, they are not as run-heavy as many other teams would be.
The Bulldogs have called an offensive play in the red zone 99 times so far this year. On those 99 snaps, the Bulldogs kept the ball on the ground 58 times (or 58.6%). Meanwhile, the Mean Green have only run the ball 40 of the 93 (43%) red zone plays.
So the lack of touchdowns on the ground for the Mean Green is a little misleading. Like with Tech, North Texas can run the ball effectively when they choose to. With a QB like Mason Fine, however, you can imagine why UNT would like to dial up passing plays as much as possible. But if the Tech defense is able to hold the passing game in check, don't count out the Mean Green running machine.
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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.