The 2024 MLB Draft is set to begin this afternoon, July 14th in Fort Worth, Texas. The three-day event will run through Tuesday evening.
Sunday | 6 PM on ESPN/MLB Network - Rounds 1 & 2
Monday | 1 PM on MLB.com - Rounds 3-10
Tuesday | 1 PM on MLB.com - Rounds 11-20
BleedTechBlue.com caught up with Greg Zumach of NorthSideBound.com to get a breakdown of Louisiana Tech's draftable players in 2024. Below is Greg's analysis and breakdowns of Sam Brodersen, Ethan Bates, Dalton Davis, Jorge Corona, and Cole McConnell.
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The Major League Baseball draft is fast approaching and it’s worth a look into how this week could affect fans of the Diamond Dogs. Before we look into the players, let’s examine the details about how the MLB Draft works to better understand where each player may slot in.
The baseball draft is unique from other sport drafts because it operates effectively as two separate phases. The first phase (the first 10 rounds) gives teams a set amount of money (bonus pool) they can spend. This bonus pool comprises the recommended signing bonus figures MLB provides for each assigned pick in the first 10 rounds. If a team doesn’t sign a pick, they lose the assigned value of that selection. There are some restrictions, but mostly, teams can move money around in those 10 rounds. Rounds 11-20 allow teams to spend up to $150k on each player and if they have any rollover money from the first 10 rounds, they can use that for any dollar over $150k on a player. They do not lose any money if they cannot sign a player in rounds 11-20. To move money around in the first 10 rounds, teams will often take several “senior signs” where older players in their last year of college eligibility sign for well below the assigned value for that selection. The team then can use that money on higher ceiling players near the top of the draft.
In this piece I will include limited data shared to me by scouts and analysts to help explain more about each player on a deeper level. If newer metrics aren’t your jam, that’s okay. The best part of baseball is that you can evaluate the game based solely on the eye-test and as deep as examining a player’s launch angle or vertical movement of their fastball. Embrace the game in whatever way you like. If you want to dive into the data, I’ve provided a few basic overviews of the metrics below.
Pitching Metrics
Vertical movement: The amount of movement (in inches) imparted on the vertical plane solely by the force of a ball’s spin. It’s also referred to as IVB, carry and ride. The average four-seam fastball has about 16 inches of vertical movement.
Horizontal movement: The amount of movement (in inches) imparted on the horizontal plane solely by the force of a ball’s spin. It’s also referred to as run. For instance, the average four-seam fastball has approximately 7.5 inches of horizontal movement.
Spin: The amount of revolutions (spins) per minute (RPM) the ball makes while being thrown. While higher spin RPM can be very helpful in pitch design, lower spin can also be helpful.
Hitting Metrics
Contact Rate: There are a few different ways to calculate it, but I focus on defining it as the percentage of times a hitter swings and makes contact with the ball. We look at players with a college contact rate of 78% to be roughly average for regular time player. Ideally hitters are making contact with closer to 82% of swings.
Chase Rate: This is the percentage of times a hitter swings at a pitch outside the zone. Less is better as we want hitters swinging at strikes and not swinging at balls. 23% is approximately average for most draft-eligible players.
Exit velocity: How hard a ball is hit. Because there can be outliers in college baseball data, teams will often disregard the top 8-10% of EVs and evaluate a hitter’s 90-92nd percentile EV. We’ll look at 90th% in this article. Average here is about 105 mph.
Pitchers:
Sam Brodersen | Brodersen proved to be quite a reliable reliever for the Diamon Dogs last season. The fastball isn’t elite from a velocity standpoint, but it gets great movement at the top of the zone. We refer to the pitch with a lot of vertical movement as having “carry” or “ride”, giving the illusion to hitters that it’s moving upward. The pitch also has some “relative cut” meaning that it doesn’t move as much into right-handed hitters as much as the average pro fastball. That helps it play up though not all teams value that movement the same way. Teams that do value it like the Red Sox and Cubs are ones to watch here, but Brodersen should be sought out after on Day 2 or Day 3 of the draft.
Data:
Fastball 93.6 mph, 2450 rpm, vertical movement 20.4”, horizontal movement 4.8”
Slider: 84.7 mph, 2600 rpm, vertical 0.0”, horizontal -4.5”
Ethan Bates | It might surprise Diamond Dogs fans to see Bates listed only as a pitcher here, but in asking around to scouts, most feel that his future appears to lie on the mound. Bates sits in the low 90s, but can touch higher. He also employs a sweeper slider that gets considerable swing and miss. This is a reliever profile that could fit towards the back half of the Top 10 rounds as a “senior sign”. Offensively he chases the ball out of the zone too much (30%), but made good contact (85%). It’s not inconceivable to see a team at least give him some plate appearances. But I‘d put him in the pen and let the sweeper eat.
Data:
Sinker 90.1 mph (he’s touched 95+), 2450 rpm, vertical movement 20.4”, horizontal movement 4.8”
Slider: 84 mph, 2600 rpm, vertical 6.2”, horizontal -6.2”
Changeup 84.5 mph, 2000 rpm, vertical -0.2”, horizontal 17.5”
Hitters:
Dalton Davis | Davis is the LA Tech hitter I’m most interested in come draft day. He’ll show power primarily to pull side, but has shown the ability to go the other way. Davis is already almost 24 and teams don’t prioritize players like this in the draft, however he’s a great candidate to be a “senior sign” as discussed above. This likely means being selected in the 5-8th round of the draft and signing a well-below slot deal. Like the data shows below, he makes amazing contact and doesn’t chase the ball. His exit velocity may have some questions associated with it, but it’s still the profile of a player who should be able to hold his own against advanced pitching.
Data:
Contact% 93%
Chase%: 16.5%
90th% EV: 102.6 mph
Jorge Corona | One of the best to ever wear the uniform, Corona is an interesting draft candidate this year as he progresses another year further from elbow surgery. The right-handed hitting catcher showed he was able to gun down runners nailing 24 trying to steal. He also showed off good, not great power. He swings and misses and chases at an average clip. As a nearly 24 year old player with a history of elbow surgery, there may be enough to give teams pause, but it’s not impossible to see a team believe in a player widely lauded as one of the best teammates in La Tech baseball history. Remember, draft projection doesn’t always correlate with production or importance of a player to a program. Jorge Corona is a certified DAWG (or should I say Diamond DAWG) out there.
Data:
Contact% 77%
Chase%: 25.4%
90th% EV: 104.3 mph
Cole McConnell | If you want to talk about tools, McConnell has them in spades. He shows impressive defense in CF and can get to some above-average power regularly in-game. The almost-23-year-old left-handed hitter though has significant questions to address from a batted ball data perspective. He makes below average contact and chases out of the zone. He gets to his power with a steep bat path (leading to high launch angles). That last part isn’t a knock and is certainly in-vogue with how hitters attack pitches at the pro level, but leads to whiff issues in certain parts of the strike zone. Like the other hitters above, McConnell could see his name a senior sign option on Day 2 of the draft if a team wanted to roll the dice on loud tools who can provide value on defense.
Data:
Contact% 76%
Chase%: 30.3%
90th% EV: 106.5 mph
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BleedTechBlue.com has had the opportunity to have Greg Zumach of NorthSideBound.com preview the 2022, 2023, and 2024 MLB Draft for us. Greg does great work, and we are proud to continue being your #1 source for all things Louisiana Tech Athletics.
Follow Greg Zumach and NorthSideBound.com on Twitter | @IvyFutures, @NSideBound
Follow us on Twitter: @BCarlisle37, @BleedTechBlue
