Louisiana Tech (3-3, 2-0) hosts Western Kentucky (3-2, 1-0) in a pivotal Conference USA showdown on Thursday night in Ruston.
Game Time | Thursday @ 7 PM
TV/Radio | ESPN/KXKZ 107.5 FM
Louisiana Tech HC | Sonny Cumbie (6-12 overall record in 2nd season)
Louisiana Tech OC | Jake Brown & Scott Parr (27.0 points per game in 2nd season)
Louisiana Tech DC | Scott Power (25.7 points allowed per game in 2nd season)
Western Kentucky HC | Tyson Helton (35-23 overall record in 5th season)
Western Kentucky OC | Drew Hollingshead (31.6 points per game in 1st season)
Western Kentucky DC | Tyson Summers (29.2 points allowed per game in 2nd season)
Hilltoppers Projected Starters
*Offense
QB | RS Senior #16 Austin Reed (6’2 220/74.8 PFF Grade) --<West Florida
RB | RS Senior #2 Davion Ervin-Poindexter (5’11 195/54.8 PFF Grade) --<Indiana
WR | RS Senior #19 Craig Burt Jr. (6’4 205/51.7 PFF Grade) --<Hutchinson CC
WR | Junior #11 Malachi Corley (5’11 210/79.3 PFF Grade)
WR | RS Freshman #8 Easton Messer (5’9 195/82.7 PFF Grade)
WR | RS Freshman #15 K.D. Hutchinson (5’8 180/57.0 PFF Grade)
TE | RS Sophomore #87 River Helms (6’4 242/52.8 PFF Grade)
LT | Junior #76 Mark Goode (6’6 298/52.2 PFF Grade)
LG | Junior #78 Quantavious Leslie (6’3 318/69.9 PFF Grade)
C | RS Junior #64 Vincent Murphy (6’2 309/72.0 PFF Grade) --<South Carolina
RG | RS Sophomore #50 Wesley Horton (6’3 303/62.3 PFF Grade)
RT | RS Junior #73 Wes Dorsey (6’7 315/31.4 PFF Grade)
*Defense
DLE | RS Freshman #95 Deante McCray (6’4 268/65.2 PFF Grade)
NT | RS Senior #99 Kenyonte Davis (6’5 301/64.7 PFF Grade) -->UT Martin
DT | RS Sophomore #98 Hosea Wheeler (6’3 298/65.1 PFF Grade) --<Sacramento City College
JACK | RS Senior #48 Niko Cooper (6’5 242/65.6 PFF Grade)-<Hutchinson CC, Nebraska
WLB | RS Sophomore #15 Aaron Key (6’2 232/49.0 PFF Grade)
MLB | RS Senior #20 Bryson Washington (6’0 238/76.4 PFF Grade)
SLB | Junior #3 JaQues Evans (6’2 250/71.7 PFF Grade)
NK | Sophomore #19 Virgil Marshall (6’0 205/60.6 PFF Grade)
CB | RS Senior #14 Davion Williams (6’0 180/63.9 PFF Grade) --<Michigan State
FS | Junior #16 Kendrick Simpkins (6’0 196/68.8 PFF Grade)
SS | RS Senior #7 Takulve Williams (6’0 211/60.3 PFF Grade) --<Kansas
CB | RS Sophomore #21 Upton Stout (5’9 185/77.2 PFF Grade) --<North Texas
*Special Teams
K | RS Freshman #17 Lucas Carneiro (5’11 175/82.3 PFF Grade)
P | RS Sophomore #47 Tom Ellard (5’10 170/66.7 PFF Grade)
KR | | Junior #3 Elijah Young (5’9 190/53.4 PFF Grade) --<Missouri
PR | RS Freshman #15 K.D. Hutchinson (5’8 180/57.0 PFF Grade)
Bulldogs Projected Starters
QB | RS Sophomore #10 Jack Turner (6’5 230/60.9 PFF Grade) --<Navarro CC
RB | RS Junior #4 Tyre Shelton (5’11 190/85.5 PFF Grade) --<Miami (OH)
RB | RS Junior #23 Keldric Moody (5’9 195/59.9 PFF Grade)
WR | RS Junior #16 Tru Edwards (6’3 200/52.5 PFF Grade) --<Navarro CC, Hawai’i
WR | RS Senior #6 Smoke Harris (5’7 183/69.6 PFF Grade)
WR | Sophomore #1 Cyrus Allen (6’0 177/70.2 PFF Grade)
TE | RS Senior #34 Ryan Rivera (6’3 234/58.0 PFF Grade) --<Cal Poly
LT | Junior #68 Dakota White (6’4 305/56.8 PFF Grade)
LG | Junior #79 Bert Hale (6’5 331/67.7 PFF Grade)
C | Grad. Student #62 Abe Delfin (6’1 310/48.0 PFF Grade)
RG | Junior #75 Jerren Gilbert (6’3 295/58.4 PFF Grade)
RT | RS Sophomore #65 Carson Bruno (6’4 312/57.9 PFF Grade)
*Defense
LDE | Junior #15 Jesse Evans (6’2 248/59.3 PFF Grade) --<Prairie View A&M
DT | Senior #93 Rason Williams II (6’4 280/54.5 PFF Grade) --<Stephen F. Austin
DT | Senior #5 Deshon Hall Jr. (6’3 264/65.8 PFF Grade)
RDE | RS Junior #88 Mykol Clark (6’4 260/63.6 PFF Grade)
MLB | RS Senior #9 Hugh Davis (6’0 227/57.0 PFF Grade) --<Boston College
WLB | RS Senior #3 Jeslord Boateng (6’2 228/61.7 PFF Grade) --<Michigan State, Akron
NK | Freshman #13 Michael Richard (5’11 180/76.3 PFF Grade)
CB | RS Freshman #4 Jhamal Shelby Jr. (6’2 190/73.4 PFF Grade)
FS | RS Senior #2 Cecil Singleton Jr. (6’2 210/65.9 PFF Grade) --<Miami (OH)
SS | RS Senior #0 Myles Heard (5’11 201/64.1 PFF Grade) --<Stephen F. Austin
CB | Senior #1 Willie Roberts (5’11 190/76.5 PFF Grade) --<Stephen F. Austin
*Special Teams
K | RS Junior #35 Jacob Barnes (5’9 183/74.4 PFF Grade)
P | RS Senior #31 Blake Ochsendorf (6’6 220/72.1 PFF Grade)
KR | Sophomore #1 Cyrus Allen (6’0 177/74.5 PFF Grade)
PR | RS Senior #6 Smoke Harris (5’7 183/70.2 PFF Grade)
Scouting the Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky is coming off a bounce-back 31-10 victory over rival Middle Tennessee last Thursday. The win ended a two-game losing streak for the Hilltoppers that included a 63-10 loss at Ohio State and a 27-24 loss at Troy. Undoubtedly, WKU has not yet reached the potential that many analysts expected it to reach in the preseason, at least not yet. Ohio State was expected to beat them, but not by 53, and WKU wanted to avenge a close loss from Troy from last season but failed to do so. To close my point, Western Kentucky in their current form is extremely beatable going into their Week 6 showdown at Louisiana Tech.
Quarterback Austin Reed has experienced a strong start to the season, although his completion percentage is down from 64% to under 62% and his yards per attempt has diminished from 7.9 to 6.5. Outside of the game versus FCS opponent Houston Christian, Reed’s highest completion percentage in a game this season is 60%. Western Kentucky has been known to throw the ball and has definitely lived up to that reputation this season. In their first five games, the Hilltoppers have thrown the 50, 33, 37, 40, and 52 times. From rewatching their games, WKU loves to go to quick games and screens early in the game, before eventually opening up the offense more and hitting deep shots.
Utilizing mostly four wide receiver formations, Tyson Helton and WKU love to use their speed and no-huddle to their advantage. Malachi Corley returned for another stellar season, doing most of his damage after the catch. Corley leads the team with 29 receptions, 331 yards, and 2 touchdowns. A potentially emerging star in the offense for the Hilltoppers is redshirt freshman receiver Easton Messer in the other slot position. Western Kentucky rotates heavily at the receiver position, and Messer has made the most of his opportunities, catching 22 passes for 280 yards and 3 touchdowns this season. Tight end River Helms also substitutes into the game on a select number of running and some pass plays but usually lines up behind the tackle rather than on the line.
Running the ball is not a high priority in this offense, and the Hilltoppers lean into the running back-by-committee approach. The leading rusher is L.T. Sanders with 117 yards on 18 rushes, but Markese Stepp has rushed the ball 27 times, Davion Ervin-Poindexter 22 times, and Elijah Young 22 times as well. WKU’s offensive line has been solid up to this point, led by left guard Quantavious Leslie and center Vincent Murphy. The weaker components of the offensive line have definitely been at the tackle position, especially the right tackle position. Wes Dorsey has heavily struggled at the position, and rotational tackle Marshall Jackson has filled in at times and provided more consistency.
Scouting the Bulldogs
Louisiana Tech also ended their two-game losing streak this past week, defeating UTEP 24-10 in El Paso. Jack Turner’s production significantly declined from the Nebraska game, but a fast start led by an explosive Cyrus Allen catch and a Smoke Harris punt return touchdown was about all the Bulldogs needed to get the win on Friday. A strong defensive performance led by Myles Heard took advantage of a depleted and sluggish UTEP offense. Both teams were plagued with penalties throughout the game, something the Bulldogs must clean up before Thursday night.
With all signs once again indicating that Turner will start this week, it will be interesting to see how Cumbie makes life easier for his inexperienced quarterback. Leaning on star running back Tyre Shelton is a likely solution, but not having a substantial counter to Western Kentucky’s lethal passing attack is a surefire death wish. Completing 9 of 20 passes again this week will simply not cut it, and getting Harris and Allen the ball early and often is a priority once again. Tru Edwards having a career day last week could be a sign of things to come, and the Bulldogs desperately need another healthy weapon in their inconsistent offense.
Left guard Bert Hale has been the most consistent player on a mediocre offensive line this season. Entering this season, the offensive line had somewhat high hopes considering they were all experienced and had shown flashes of production in previous seasons. Carson Bruno’s injury has definitely not helped the equation, but to his credit, Bruno has fought hard to play each week and seems to be closer to fully recovering. Dakota White at left tackle has to play better in pass protection this week for Turner to have a fair opportunity to get the ball out to his playmakers. At center and right guard, Abe Delfin and Jerren Gilbert have played better since their slow starts to the season and must continue to improve to add an extra element to the run game.
Defensively, losing Brevin Randle is a significant blow to the defense. However, playing without Randle this week might not negatively affect the defense as much, due to Western Kentucky being a pass-heavy team that plays with mostly four wide receiver sets. J’Dan Burnett was playing extremely well before his injury, but his absence has led to transfers Jesse Evans, Ezekiel Durham-Campbell, and Jayden Gray receiving more opportunities to play on the edge. Hugh Davis and Zach Zimos are expected to rotate at linebacker this week, with Zimos possibly getting more playing time due to his ability to play in coverage. The secondary has definitely been the strength of the defense up to this point, led by Willie Roberts, Michael Richard, and Myles Heard, but we will truly see how good they are this week facing their greatest test of the season.
Statistical Leaders
WKU
#16 QB Austin Reed: 61.8 completion %, 1,368 yards, 11 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 131.2 passer rating
#7 RB L.T. Sanders: 18 carries, 117 yards, 6.5 yards per rush, long of 56
#2 RB Davion Ervin-Poindexter: 22 carries, 106 yards, 4.6 yards per rush, long of 18, 9 receptions, 62 yards, 1 touchdown
#11 WR Malachi Corley: 29 receptions, 331 yards, 11.4 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
#8 WR Easton Messer: 22 receptions, 280 yards, 12.7 yards per catch, 3 touchdowns
#18 WR Moussa Berry: 7 receptions, 129 yards, 18.4 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
#3 LB JaQues Evans: 28 total tackles, 15 solo tackles, 1.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sacks, 1 QB hit, 1 forced fumble, 2 fumble recoveries
#48 JACK Niko Cooper: 21 total tackles, 14 solo tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sacks, 2 QB hits
#16 FS Kendrick Simpkins: 20 total tackles, 14 solo tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 5 QB hits, 2 forced fumbles
#21 CB Upton Stout: 20 total tackles, 13 solo tackles, 1.0 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits, 1 forced fumble, 4 pass breakups, 1 interception
#95 DE Deante McCray: 12 total tackles, 6 solo tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 2 QB hits, 1 fumble recovery
#17 K Lucas Carneiro: 18/18 on extra points, 6/6 on field goals, long of 45
#47 P Tom Ellard: 24 punts, 41.0 yards per punt, long of 51
LA Tech
#10 QB Jack Turner: 60.0% completion percentage, 590 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 129.3 passer rating, 1 rushing touchdown
#4 RB Tyre Shelton: 37 carries, 318 yards, 8.6 yards per rush, 3 touchdowns
#23 RB Keldric Moody: 24 carries, 91 yards, 3.8 yards per rush, long of 25
#6 WR Smoke Harris: 37 receptions, 368 yards, 9.9 yards per catch, 3 touchdowns, 1 punt return touchdown
#1 WR Cyrus Allen: 18 receptions, 331 yards, 18.4 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
#16 WR Tru Edwards: 8 receptions, 85 yards, 10.6 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
#0 SS Myles Heard: 60 total tackles, 30 solo tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 1 QB hit, 1 forced fumble, 3 pass breakups
#2 FS Cecil Singleton: 40 total tackles, 21 solo tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass breakup, 1 interception
#3 LB Jeslord Boateng: 39 total tackles, 12 solo tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 1.0 sacks, 1 pass breakup
#1 CB Willie Roberts: 24 total tackles, 16 solo tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, 7 pass breakups, 1 interception
#5 DT Deshon Hall: 21 total tackles, 13 solo tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks
#35 K Jacob Barnes: 17/17 on extra points, 8/10 on field goals, long of 46
#31 P Blake Ochsendorf: 29 punts, 44.8 yards per punt, long of 66
Matchups to Watch
1) Willie Roberts vs Malachi Corley
2) Michael Richard vs Easton Messer
3) Dakota White vs Deante McCray
4) Tyre Shelton vs JaQues Evans
5) Cyrus Allen vs Upton Stout
Prediction
As vulnerable as Western Kentucky appears on film, Louisiana Tech, unfortunately, appears even more vulnerable on film and in person. Lacking an offensive identity this far into the season spells trouble going against a perennial offensive power. I expect the Bulldogs’ secondary to make some big plays in the game and give the offense chances to take advantage. The Hilltoppers will likely force Tech to throw the ball, and I haven’t seen enough from Turner just yet to have confidence that the Bulldogs can win a shootout with the elite teams in the conference.
Final Score: Hilltoppers 38. Bulldogs 30.
ESPN FPI
Louisiana Tech #110
Western Kentucky #83
University Comparison
Louisiana Tech | Location: Ruston, Louisiana | Conference: C-USA | Enrollment:11,037
Western Kentucky | Location: Bowling Green, Kentucky | Conference: C-USA | Enrollment:14,729
Stadium History:
Joe Aillet Stadium
Opened in 1968
Capacity of 28,562
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