It's second and goal at the Southern Miss two yard line with 36 seconds left in the game. The Bulldogs just need to gain those final six feet to give Jacob Barnes a chance to score the winning point.
Instead, Luke Anthony fumbles the exchange with Greg Garner, and Tech is backed up to the five yard line.
Luckily, we know how this story ends. Anthony finds Griffin Hebert in the back of the end zone on 4th down to win the game.
But that second down misstep is an example of a larger problem on offense. And it’s an issue that the Bulldog defense shares. Tech has struggled so far in short-yardage situations on both sides of the ball.
“Power Success Rate” is a stat that measures how a team performs in those crucial spots. This rate shows the percentage of run plays on 3rd and 4th down and less than three that result in a first down. It also factors in rushes from the two-yard line in the red zone, no matter what down it is.
And while Tech has struggled in these situations, BYU has not:
Granted, Tech’s failures in these situations are usually not due to a Luke Anthony fumble. And it's typically not the running back's fault either. The position group with the most influence over these rankings is the offensive line.
It’s early in the year, but BYU ranks 20th (out of 73 schools that have played) in offensive power success rate. If BYU can keep up this success in short-yardage situations, an 83.3% power success rate would have been the 2nd best in college football last season.
And Tech’s 63.6% power success rate would have ranked 100th in 2019.
But remember: I said this was a problem that plagued both sides of the ball.
If we pretend those were year-long numbers, the Cougars would rank 9th, and Tech would rank 89th in FBS football. There are some very bad short-yardage defenses in Conference-USA.
It gets worse if you remove the goal line stops for the Bulldogs too.
The Tech defense has faced a 3rd or 4th and 1 or 2 on seven occasions in their two games. They were only able to force a stop once. And it was against Houston Baptist when the score was already 45-24.
And unlike Southern Miss or Houston Baptist, Brigham Young will run the ball often:
So Tech will need to be able to stop the run sooner or later if they have any hope of winning in Provo.
But the Bulldogs are playing a ranked, out-of-conference opponent hundreds of miles away on a short week. And winning this game doesn't help much in the goal of winning a conference championship.
But you may have noticed another team that has outranked BYU in every category so far: Marshall.
The Thundering Herd travel to Ruston in two weeks. And Friday night's game against the Cougars may help Holtz's team prepare for the program that has been a thorn in the Bulldogs' side in the recent past.
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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.
