It’s no secret that Miami isn’t thrilled to be sitting at 6-6 and playing in the Independence Bowl on Thursday. Only 15 years ago, the Hurricanes were regularly competing for national championships. Even as recently as 2017, the program seemed headed back to it’s glory days when Miami earned an Orange Bowl birth.

But although the 2019 team finished the regular season with the bare minimum record to even get into a bowl, SP+ still ranks Miami as the 26th best team in the nation. We know computer polls aren’t perfect, but what does the SP+ rankings see that doesn’t show up in that 6-6 record?

Well, to start, the Hurricane defense is one of the best in the nation:

And although the offense is not the strength of this team, they are at least above average:

That's painting in broad strokes, but if we rule out offense and defense, there is still one area of the game that can drag a team down: special teams.

And in Miami’s case, the issue comes down to kicking.

Let’s look at the Hurricane’s opener this year against Florida. With ten minutes left, second year starter Bubba Baxa missed a 27-yard field goal that could have extended the Hurricanes' lead to six, but instead kept the score at 20-17 Miami.

The Gators would soon make the score 24-20, but the Hurricanes drove into field goal range twice in the final few minutes. Unfortunately for Miami, each drive ended in a fourth down stop, because three points doesn't do a whole lot when you're down by four. If Baxa made the 27-yarder earlier, he may have had the chance for the game winner.

The next week, Miami travelled to UNC, where they quickly fell behind 17-3. Before the end of the first half, Baxa missed a 26 yard field goal that would have cut into the Tar Heel lead. In spite of this, the Hurricanes were almost able to complete the comeback in the second half, but Baxa missed again on an attempt that would have tied the game with only seconds left.

After falling behind by as much as 28 points to Virginia Tech a few weeks later, the Hurricanes were able to fight their way back. But with three minutes left, Baxa missed an extra point that would have given the Hurricanes the lead. The Hokies scored a game winning touchdown on their next drive anyway, but the missed extra point definitely took the wind out of Miami's sails.

By the time Miami hosted Georgia Tech two weeks later, Turner Davidson had taken over kicking duties from Baxa, but it didn’t make much of a difference. Davidson missed a 34 yard attempt that would have extended a Hurricane lead in the first half. Baxa was sent back out to attempt a 27 yard field goal to take the lead with six minutes left in the game, but it was also missed. Baxa was given one final chance with a 25 yard attempt with 26 seconds left to win the game, but the short field goal was blocked. After one overtime period, the Yellow Jackets left with a win.

For the next game against Pittsburgh, Miami turned to it’s third kicker, Camden Price. The redshirt freshman made every field goal and extra point he attempted against the Panthers. Although the kicker was only responsible for four points on the night, that was the difference in a 16-12 victory over Pitt.

Price followed up that performance with four nearly perfect games, only missing once in a 27-10 win over Florida State. Even in the disastrous losses to FIU and Duke, Price was perfect.

If Price had started from the beginning (and was this consistently good), there’s a very good chance Miami ends this season at 9-3 or 10-2 and in the Orange Bowl.

So, on the surface, it looks like Miami had a problem that they were able to fix before heading into the bowl matchup in Shreveport, but the patch comes with one caveat:

Camden Price’s longest field goal this season is only 32 yards, and he missed from 37 against Florida State. So although Miami finally found a kicker that can hit short range field goals consistently, longer attempts remain a question mark.

And in a game that could be low scoring due to a couple strong defenses, a long field goal attempt might just be the difference.

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.