After Thursday night’s game started with a Tech takeaway and ended with a Tech giveaway, it’s time to talk about turnovers.

We talked last week about just how good Western Kentucky was at generating takeaways, but the hope was the Bulldogs would be able to protect the ball like they had shown they could all season.

The bad news is that Jack Turner threw two picks against a defense averaging 1.4 interceptions per game. But the good news is that this week’s opponent, Middle Tennesee, has not been as prolific in that regard:

In fact, if you only look at turnovers, the Blue Raider defense has been just about as sub-par as the Bulldog D. And it’s worth noting that this data excludes FCS games since both teams were able to add three takeaways in what should be the easiest game on their schedule.

But the real difference in the turnover department between these teams is the offense. Even including the two interceptions thrown against WKU, Tech has shown to be an above-average team at protecting the football on offense. Middle Tennessee, on the other hand, ranks 11th worst in college football at preventing drive-ending turnovers.

And the main reason for the Blue Raiders' struggles has not been interceptions, but fumbles:

Not only is 1.2 fumbles lost per game the worst among Tech’s 2023 opponents, but it’s also 8th worst in college football.

That said, as you can see on the right side of the chart, Tech hasn’t been able to force those fumbles this year. Looking at the previous games against fumble-prone teams, Nebraska and North Texas, the Bulldogs were only able to generate zero and one fumble, respectively.

The difficulty with fumbles is they are often decided by luck - which way the ball bounces and who happens to be in the area at the time. And where this gets scary as Tech fans is when we consider just how lucky the Bulldogs have been:

Tech has put the ball on the ground nine times this year and has only had possession change twice. Meanwhile, MTSU has only fumbled the ball eight times (granted in one fewer game played) and had the defense recover six of them.

This is the part of the season where we often see some teams' luck run out, whether it be good luck or bad luck. Is Tech actually good at protecting the football, or have lucky bounces bailed them out? Does Middle Tennessee actually have a turnover problem, or will their bad luck run out? And does the fact that both of the teams are playing on their third short week in a row play any effect on Tuesday’s game?

Regardless of how the ball bounces, turnovers could have a huge effect deciding a game that many are predicting to end up as a one score game.

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.