After a great win against a conference opponent, it’s easy to let some optimism creep in before this week’s matchup against North Texas. The season was at a low point after the double-digit loss to South Alabama before the bye week, but now things seem back on track.

Granted, it was UTEP that the Bulldogs took down Saturday. And historically, the Miners have not been the team to beat in Conference USA. But neither has North Texas.

This year, looking only at points scored and points allowed, the Mean Green offense looks better than UTEP, but the defense is much much worse:

Points scored and points allowed don’t tell a full story, but they can allow us in broad strokes to compare teams. In 2022, the average team scores 27 points in a game. Teams to the right of the vertical red line score more than 27 points per game. Teams below the horizontal red line allow fewer than 27 points per game. The goal is to be in the bottom right quadrant.

Only five of the twelve Tech opponents have an above-average offense. Clemson being on this list should shock nobody. UAB and UTSA are expected to be the best all-around teams in the conference this year, so their inclusion isn’t a surprise either. Even South Alabama, who has yet to have a winning season, will probably break that streak this year, thanks in a large part to their offense.

Oh, and also North Texas.

It’s quite the turnaround for the Mean Green, who according to Sports Reference's Offensive Simple Rating System, hasn’t had an above-average offense since 2013.

The 2022 North Texas team accomplishes this feat by running the ball. With 43 rushes per game, the Mean Green run the ball more than any other team in Conference-USA.

But another thing North Texas does a lot is score touchdowns when they get into their opponent’s territory. Of the teams Tech has already faced, only Clemson has been able to score more points per trip inside the 40-yard line:

Putting the two charts together, this idea makes a lot of sense. Teams that score the most points are the teams that are able to score the most when they have great field position or a drive coming together.

But defensively, the Mean Green are a revolving door inside their own 40:

In the first few games of the year, Tech lived or died by the big play. Against UTEP, each of Tech’s four offensive touchdowns were scored from inside the 40. The Bulldogs will still seek the big play, but if Tech gets a drive going, they may not often stop until they reach the endzone.

The North Texas offense will put up points on Saturday afternoon. But if Parker McNeil can limit the interceptions, like he did against UTEP, the Bulldog offense might just match (or hopefully top) that point total.

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.