Stat Attack | Northwestern State

The two teams entering this week’s matchup had less-than-ideal Week 1 games.

Both Tech and Northwestern State were heavy underdogs going into Saturday’s matchups but were able to keep them close early. But around the turn of the first quarter, things started to head south for the teams from North Louisiana.

But there are more lessons to be learned from losses than from wins. And the lessons I want to learn before heading into this year’s iteration of the State Fair Game is - what did Northwestern State do against Louisiana-Lafayette that actually worked?

Well, even though a 38-13 loss by Northwestern State is nothing to be too happy about in Natchitoches, it was expected to be a bit worse. Louisiana-Lafayette were 35-point favorites, yet only won by 25. And the Demons limited ULL’s offensive production by not allowing the Cajuns to pick up first downs when they needed them most:

Third down stops were crucial to Northwestern State’s ability to keep this a close game early and prevent it from ending in an even bigger blowout. The best way to be a successful defense on third down (and especially on third and long) is to prevent your opponent from completing passes:

Now, of course, Northwestern State won’t be the second-best pass defense Tech will face this year. The teams on this chart have only played one or two games against various levels of competition. But the Demons may provide a real test for the Bulldog passing game.

Because even though Tech has struggled to put points on the board, they have been able to move the ball through the air. And if Northwestern State wants to have any chance of wrecking Tech, they’ll need to keep Bachmeier at bay.

But while the Demon defense was moderately successful, the offense struggled in both phases of the game. The running game could only muster 1.9 yards per rush and the passing side wasn't any better - only gaining 3.9 yards per pass.

The Tech defense has struggled against the run in both games this year, a trend going back through last season. And when it all shakes out at the end of the season, we may find that FIU and SMU both have above-average running games. But for NSU, that will not be true. If Tech struggles to defend the Demon running game, this will be a long, long season.

Especially since Northwestern State will give the Bulldogs plenty of chances to try to stop them:

Forty rushes may not seem like exceedingly many, but the Demons ran the ball 40 times in a game they lost 38-13. Teams losing badly typically don’t run the ball that often. And if this game is close, I’m expecting Northwestern State to run even more.

This rivalry may not be as heated as it was back in the '60s, but both teams will be fired up on Saturday trying to avenge a blowout loss in Week 1.

Tech needs to win this game and should win this game, but with the Demons attacking a strength (the passing game) and a weakness (the rushing defense), the Bulldogs will need to be in near mid-season form to keep this one from being too close for comfort.

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.