Stat Attack | ODU
It has not been a great week for Louisiana Tech football fans. Conference realignment news seems to deal blow after blow with each revelation. The one-possession game streak ended just as a three-game losing streak emerged. And at 2-5, bowl eligibility might be slipping away.
So when Tech needs a bounce-back game now more than ever, the scheduling gods delivered with Old Dominion:
Tech may be having a down year, but the Monarchs are having twice as bad of a time.
Most of that misfortune for ODU comes from an offense that fails to crack the Top 100 rankings in most of the major categories. 105th in completion percentage. 125th in yards per pass attempt. 103rd in yards per rush.
The Old Dominion defense, on the other hand, looks almost respectable in these categories. They allow a completion percentage of nearly 66% but have only given up 7.4 yards per pass, the 65th lowest in the nation. The Monarchs have yielded 134 rushing yards per game, but that equates to 3.6 yards per rush, the 29th best in college football.
The one Achilles heel? The Old Dominion defense has given up a lot of the only stat that truly matters in the end: points. At 35.5 points per game allowed to FBS opponents, the Monarch scoring defense ranks 114th in the country.
On the chart above, teams generally want to be as far down (fewer yards allowed) and to the left (fewer points allowed) as possible. The red trendline shows what should be common sense: the more yards a team gives up, the more points they give up as well.
Teams above that red line (like Tech) showcase the bend-but-don’t-break style of defense. The idea is that giving up yards is fine as long as points stay off the scoreboard. Old Dominion, however, is below the red line. They give up more points than you’d expect given the yardage they allowed. Break-but-don’t-bend, if you will.
Some of ODU's struggles come with how they play in the red zone. The Monarchs allow a score 88% of the time the ball crosses the 20. But the real reason Old Dominion’s defense looks like it does on paper is due to the offense.
The ODU defense consistently has to defend short fields because the offensive passing game consistently either moves the wrong way down the field or hands the ball over to the opponent. Those short fields are nightmares for defenses, and we’ve seen why as the Monarch D has struggled to keep points off the board.
The only concern as a Tech fan is that the Bulldogs have struggled all year with finishing drives. 0.3 points per trip inside the 40 against UTEP. 2 points per trip inside the 40 against UTSA. In total, Tech ranks 103rd in red zone scoring.
Old Dominion will give Tech ample opportunities to score in this game. All the Bulldogs need to do is put the ball in the endzone. But as we’ve seen so far this year from this Tech offense, that may be easier said than done, even against a team like ODU.
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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.