When the season began, this week's opponent, Sam Houston State, was seen as one you could fairly easily pencil in as a win. The Bearkats are transitioning up from the FCS ranks after having an untypically bad year in their final year in the WAC.

And the now closest geographical conference opponent to Tech has done nothing but encourage that preseason prediction as the season has gone along. Racking up losses in every FBS game they've played (let alone every conference game they've played) en route to a 1-8 record entering Joe Aillet Stadium on Saturday as Louisiana Tech's homecoming opponent.

But before we jump the gun and credit Tech with their 4th win in a season for the first time since the COVID-shortened season, it's important to note that Sam Houston is probably a bit better than their record would indicate:

Note that I didn't say that the Bearkats are good, because they aren't. This is not a bowl-eligible level team let alone a team that should be competing for the conference championship. But Sam Houston State is a team that should have already picked up their first FBS win by now.

Because, just like Tech, the Bearkats have lost quite a few close games in 2023. In fact, except for a 38-7 beatdown by Houston, every single game played by Sam Houston has been decided by 14 points or fewer. And five of the past six were one-possession games, including two overtime losses.

So while both of the teams playing in Ruston have a predisposition towards losing close games, one team that enters has to win.

Tech's offense and Sam Houston's defense tend to be league-average as of late, while Tech's defense and Sam Houston's offense have been very very bad. That's an oversimplification, but that means we could see this game decided by something trivial, like penalties:

The Bearkats are exceptional at drawing fouls. While that's a sentence that would typically make more sense when talking about basketball, the Same Houston football team has earned 1.4 fewer penalties per game than their opponents. Combine that with Tech's tendency to commit more than an average number of penalty flags, and you have a recipe for a close game swinging in the Bearkats' favor.

With Jacksonville State playing above their expectations, this game will be Tech's best chance at avoiding a 3-win season for the third season in a row. But if we see flags thrown early and often called against the Bulldogs, we could be in for a long night and an identical record to the past couple of seasons.

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.