Neither Louisiana Tech nor UTEP are particularly happy about how this season has gone so far. Fans of the Bulldogs and Miners had hoped for large improvements in 2023, but not much has materialized on either side.

Both teams struggled against a conference opponent they were expected to easily beat in Week 0. Both teams handled their FCS opponent, but have struggled elsewhere. And probably most importantly - both teams desperately need a win this week.

The comparisons don’t stop there for the two Western-most C-USA schools left out of this latest round of realignment. Both Louisiana Tech and UTEP struggle to run the ball on offense, and have trouble stopping it on defense:

Although UTEP hasn’t been affected by the injury bug that has plagued Tech’s running back room, the two “guys” in the Miner backfield (Deion Hankins and Torrance Burgess Jr.) have struggled to get anything going.

Unless, that is, you’re an FCS team.

Against Incarnate Word, UTEP ran the ball 50 times for 329 yards (that’s 6.6 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. 45% of their total rushing yards on the season came in that one game.

And if you’re a Tech fan, this sounds familiar. 48% of Tech’s yards on the ground on the season came against Northwestern State, a game where the Bulldogs carried the rock 38 times for 367 yards.

Defensively, UTEP was able to stop the FCS running game (27 rushes for 64 yards) as was Tech, more or less (51 rushes for 185 yards).

But outside of those FCS matchups, opponents have quickly learned the easiest way to beat both Louisiana Tech and UTEP is on the ground:

Both coaches know the other team struggles to defend the run, so we’ll likely see a lot of run plays on Friday regardless of who has the ball. Especially since we’ve seen both of these teams get the run game going against inferior defenses (the FCS schools).

Tied together by fate, it’s hard not to see ourselves in this UTEP team. With so many similarities, especially in the running game, it’s difficult to gauge which team will be better and which will be worse.

Maybe that’s why Vegas only favors one team by a point and ESPN’s FPI avoids the question entirely by giving both teams a 50.0% chance to win.

Because if either of these teams’ run defenses are actually at FCS level, their opponent will run all over them Friday night. And if that’s true for both teams, this game could end up just as close as those predictors are predicting.

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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.