After a disastrous loss to New Mexico State last Tuesday, the only good news for the Bulldogs is that they won't be the team to hand UTEP its first win of the season after the Miners beat FIU 30-21 last Wednesday. But after Tech's recent struggles in Las Cruces, there's a real fear that they might be the Miners' second victory. But for UTEP to have a chance to join Tech in the Two Wins Club™, they would need to greatly improve on offense, especially when it comes to sustaining drives.
Let’s start by focusing on the end of drives and then working our way back to their beginning. Against FBS opponents, UTEP's red zone scoring percentage is only 62.5%, the 4th worst in college football. This means that less than two-thirds of the time the Miners cross into the red zone, they fail to score—whether through a touchdown or even a field goal.
Backing up from the 20-yard line to the 40, UTEP's performance doesn't improve much. The Miners are averaging just 2.9 points per scoring opportunity, placing them sixth worst in the nation:
Not only do the Miners struggle with their scoring opportunities, but they also often fail to set up those opportunities.
UTEP is averaging only 16.4 first downs per game, ranking them 14th fewest in college football. And that's because when UTEP finds itself behind the sticks, the drive often stalls. Their passing down success rate—a metric that measures the effectiveness of plays on typical passing downs—sits at a dismal 27%, ranking them 31st worst in FBS football.
Adding to UTEP’s offensive woes, their starting field position often puts them at a disadvantage. The Miners' average starting field position is their own 27-yard line, the 20th worst in college football. This means they consistently face long fields when attempting to score, forcing them to convert more first downs to get into scoring range.
Putting it all together, UTEP's offense often takes over needing to construct long drives to have a scoring chance. They then struggle to convert first downs, especially when forced into third-and-long situations, where their passing-down success rate comes into play. Even if they gain a few first downs or capitalize on turnovers, they often fail to punch the ball into the end zone or even score through field goals.
Given these Miner challenges, the Bulldog defense should be well-equipped to stifle the Miners and keep them off the scoreboard. The real question, however, is: can the Tech offense step up in what is likely to be a low-scoring affair?
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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.
