Entering the season, Western Kentucky was seen as one of the two favorites to win Conference USA, alongside newcomer Liberty. And the reason for this optimism in Bowling Green was the return of QB Austin Reed and the Hilltopper passing game.
Last year, WKU passed the ball a C-USA leading 45 times per game for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. And the good news this year for the Hilltoppers is that the playcalling has featured just as many passes as it did in 2022:
The bad news is the 7.9 yards per pass from 2022 has fallen to 6.5 yards per pass. And while that doesn’t seem like a huge difference between those numbers, it’s effectively the difference between a Top 50 and a Bottom 25 passing offense.
And that may explain why this year’s version of Western Kentucky doesn’t look quite as scary as last year’s squad. The passing offense, while still a threat, seems to have taken a step back at moving the ball down the field.
But once the Hilltoppers do get down the field, they’ve had no problem punching it in:
Every single time Western Kentucky has passed their opponents’ 20-yard line this year, they’ve at least scored three points. That’s a huge improvement over last year’s 80% red zone success rate and has at least partially made up for the difference in overall passing game effectiveness.
But another area of this team helping to make up for the lack of overwhelming passing success is the defense.
While the Hilltoppers have the second-worst defense when measured by yards allowed, they greatly succeed at creating additional opportunities for the offense:
And this is not a new part of the WKU game. Last year, the Hilltoppers finished third in college football forcing 2.2 turnovers per game. And while the season is still young, this 2023 Western Kentucky defense may be even better at creating extra opportunities for the offense.
But as the above chart also shows, the Bulldogs have been able to avoid those costly turnovers regardless of who starts at QB. And while that’s with Tech already facing two of the top four takeaway-producing teams the Bulldogs will face all year.
It’s the strength versus strength matchup that might decide the game. If Western Kentucky is able to create extra possessions, they should easily be able to take care of business. But if Tech can take care of the ball, they might just have a shot.
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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.
