Each week, we take a look into the weekend's matchup and try to pinpoint three things Louisiana Tech needs to do to win. This week, it's a Bulldog Battle Royale in Starkville, as Tech takes on Mississippi State. How can the good Dogs beat the bad Dogs?
1) Win the turnover battle
I think I speak for every (Tech) Bulldog fan when I say I would prefer we don't have any highlights set to the tune of "Yakkity Sax" this time around. Forgive me, but I'm going to take us back to last year's ill-fated match with the Maroondogs for a moment. In a 57-21 game, you'd be hard-pressed to argue that one single thing killed Tech's chances to win. But that's precisely what happened last year: Tech played possibly the sloppiest game I've ever seen. Let's recap the miscues: Mississippi State blocked a punt for a TD; two plays later, a J'Mar interception sets up State for a 17 yard TD pass; Tech scores! (but then has the PAT blocked and returned for 2); Tech fumbles at the MSU 10 going in, it's returned for a touchdown; and finally, a decent drive ends with the Looney Tunes theme playing as Tech ends in 3rd and goal from their own 7. If my math is correct, that's 23 points Tech handed MSU, and 7 points Tech could've added if not for the 3rd and 93 situation. 30 points. 34-28 sounds a lot better, doesn't it? This year, Tech absolutely has to protect the football if they hope to have any chance to win in Starkville.
2) Passing Downs
Last week in Boca Raton, the Dogs did their very best to get into obvious passing situations on third down. Of Tech's 18 3rd down plays in the game, 13 of them were 3rd and 6 or longer. "But Evan, Tech converted 50% of its third down attempts! That's a great rate!" Well, you aren't wrong. It is pretty impressive that even though Tech averaged 3rd and 7.4 yards, they converted 50% of their attempts. Let me tell you a little secret, though. The Owls are not the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Not even close. State's defense is exceptional in shutting down opponents in obvious passing situations. In 3rd-and-long situations (like Tech consistently saw last Friday night), MSU allows a conversion rate just under 14%, good for 2nd in the country. Meanwhile, on 3rd-and-short, they're not as good: allowing a 71.4% conversion rate (52nd FBS). This is a key area that the Dogs can take advantage of: get some yards on first and second down, and the Maroondogs will let you move the chains on third.
3) Get After Fitzgerald
It's no secret that if you pressure most QBs, they have trouble passing the ball. Nick Fitzgerald is no different. With pressure in his face, he's 12 of 46 for 144, one touchdown, and four interceptions. That's a 26% completion rate. Yikes! Luckily, Tech should be able to get some pressure on the State passer. So far this year, State is allowing sacks on 7.6% of QB dropbacks (94th FBS), while Ferguson and the gang are getting sacks on 9.3% of dropbacks (12th FBS). The problem with Fitzgerald is that if his first read isn't there, he'll take off on foot. And he's not just a passer, he's actually State's leading rusher with 732 yards on 137 carries and 9 scores. This is where Tech will need its linebackers to help contain and limit the damage Fitzgerald can cause on the ground. Here's hoping James Jackson can have another monster game! If Tech can contain the Maroondog's running game at all and force Fitzgerald to try to beat them in the air, I like Tech's chances in the game. With Ferguson in Fitzgerald's face and Amik on the outside, I'm not afraid of State's passing game at all.
Evan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to follow @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter for more!
