Three Keys to Victory | MTSU
Oh man, do the Dogs need a victory. At 2-6, Tech is staring down the barrel of a losing season with their backs against the wall. While it's unlikely Tech will get to 6-6, they can keep those hopes alive with a victory against Middle Tennessee tomorrow afternoon. How can the Dogs get there?
Cover 3
Last week, Tech made a pretty bad quarterback look like a GREAT one. Grayson James came into the game with just ONE passing TD against CUSA opponents. He had three against Tech. Along the way, he elipsed his career high in passing yardage. The poor pass defense performance was surprising last week, and it seemed to come from the fact that outside of the top two corners, Tech struggled to keep up with FIU's receivers. This week, Tech will have to figure out how to cover more than two receivers at a time if they want a chance. MTSU QB Cade Cunningham has been solid this year (67%, over 2000 yds, 13 TD-5INT), and he's done so by spreading the ball around. The Raiders have 5 receivers in triple digit yardage and 7 receivers with a TD through the air. Middle loves to sling it - they are passing at a rate of 9.5% over the average team in similar down and distance situations. In order to slow the MTSU offense, Tech will need to put Roberts and Brooks on an island, and find ways to help the other guys in coverage. Whether it's dropping an extra man back in coverage or doubling up with safety help, it's got to happen if Tech wants to win this game.
Build Something
This might be the first week I'm not harping on the run defense as the reason Tech might lose this ball game. Last week the Dogs completely shut down FIU on the ground (57 yards, 2.2 ypc). MTSU comes into this game with a pretty bad ground attack. They rank 125th in the nation with a -0.174 expected points added per run play. For comparison, Tech's run game (which has been downright atrocious for most of the season) is 106th by this same metric. If last week can give any phase of our team some confidence moving forward, it should be the run defense. Even though Middle is good through the air, let's force them to be one-dimensional by continuing our newfound success against the run.
Find a way to win
The past few games have been TOUGH on us as fans. But I'd bet anything it's been tougher to be in the locker room, knowing that one or two plays literally made the difference on the scoreboard. Since 2021, Tech has lost 6 games on the final play. That is BRUTAL. If those 6 had gone another way, you're talking about a team that's gone 11-9 in that stretch. Instead, we're 5-15. Tech has an offense that is absolutely good enough to win games, including this one. MTSU has a good defense that is solid in pretty much every area - But Tech's offense is pretty solid, too. This very well may be another game that comes down to a final play, a final drive, a key decision. Will Tech's players and coaches have the guts to make the right call? To make the key throw? To catch the errant throw from Cunningham? The bettor's anser to those questions based on this year would have to be NO... But we've got to overcome. Otherwise, we'll be staring at another 99% postgame win expectancy wondering, what if? Tech has a W in them, they just have to prove it to themselves.
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Evan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter, play the gtpdd Contest and CUSA Fantasy, and listen to the gtpdd Podcast!