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Published Oct 15, 2024
Three Keys to Victory | NMSU
Evan Spencer  •  BleedTechBlue
Staff Writer
Twitter
@EvanRSpencer

Before I jump into my "high-minded" analysis and tell you what the Bulldogs need to do to be victorious this week, let me start out with a couple of things. First: Wow this feels WEIRD. Not only am I writing this post on a Monday thanks to our game being Tuesday night... I am writing this after a WIN! In the words of George Harrison, it's been a Long, Long, Long time.

Writing these posts has honestly gotten kind of monotonous. It's been... "let me tell you three OBVIOUS things Tech (or really any team) needs to do to be successful." Then the game rolls around, and does Tech do those things? No! And do they win? NO!!!! Rinse and Repeat.

But last week, the Bulldogs found their groove. My three keys were: Find a spark on offense (CHECK: Nathan Young's use of the Sonny Cumbie playbook was incredible), Throw the ball downfield against Middle Tennessee's HORRIBLE pass defense (CHECK: Bullock threw for a career-high 290 yards and was phenomenal on downfield looks), and generate some turnovers (check: Tech finally won the turnover battle).

So with that recent success in mind, let's turn our attention to the New Mexico State Aggies:

1) Play to your potential

Look, it's not some big secret. New Mexico State is bad. They're actually statistically worse than MTSU in a lot of categories. Offensively, they can't pass (131st in passing yards), they can't score (18.5 ppg, 121st), and they turn the ball over a lot (-1.33 turnover margin is 13rd).

Defensively it's not much better. The Aggies give up tons of points (38.2 ppg, 126th), get gashed on the ground (250 ypg, 130th), and aren't much better through the air (223.5 ypg, 82nd).

So listen up, Dogs. It's time to build some momentum as a program. We know you'll be tired after a long trip and a short rest from the whoopin' you put on Middle just 5 days ago. But go out there and prove that you're better. Because you are. So play like it and we'll win easily.

2) Stop the Run

New Mexico State doesn't do anything particularly well, but they are above average in the running game. The Aggies average 164 yards per game on the ground, which is good for 65th in the nation. If we dive into the advanced stats a little bit, we see that the offense has a stuff rate of 14 (which is good) and gains 3.3 line yards per rush (also good). On average, the are expected to score 0.141 points per run play, which is good compared to the 0.002 points they are expected to lose every time they pass the ball.

While they'll be missing recent starting QB Santino Marucci and one of their backs in Monte Watkins, the three leading rushers on the team are good to go for Tuesday night. Seth McGowan and Mike Washington are the two names to watch for: both are tall backs at more than 6'1", and both account for the vast majority of the Aggies yardage and rushing TDs. But expected starting QB Parker Awad runs it a lot, too: 30 rush attempts this season in only 4 games played.

If Tech's defense is able to continue its stellar play against the run, NMSU will have nowhere to turn, and the Dogs will come home with a W.

3) Bullseye Bullock & The Rag Tag Running Game

There's not much to this one. Evan Bullock was SLIGNIN' IT on Thursday night. So this one's for Nathan Young and the offensive gameplan: Let the young man cook. The reigning CUSA Offensive player of the week had 5 passing TDs and added a rushing TD. New Mexico State's pass defense is better than Middle's, but Evan Bullock should still have some opportunities to push the ball down field.

Now over to the running game, where NMSU really struggles defensively. Nathan Young's gameplan last week was to get as many dudes in the game as possible at the running back position. Hell, they even asked me to come in for a couple plays, but the ol' knees didn't think that was a good idea.

On Thursday night, 11 different guys toted the rock at some point. That's more than any other game this decade (and probably a lot longer... ran out of time to check all the box scores). With how bad the Aggies are at stopping the run, we may need that many dudes tonight while the others are off getting oxygen.

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Evan is also a part of go tech pls dont die, a zany LA Tech sports blog, Twitter, and podcast. Check us out!