Each week, we take a look into the weekend's matchup and try to pinpoint three things Louisiana Tech needs to do to win. This week, Tech comes home to face the 1-9 Rice Owls. How can the Dogs get back on track?
1) Taking Care of Business
Rice is an inferior opponent. The first key when it comes to beating an inferior opponent is to handle your own business. Control what you can control. Don't play down to the other team's weaknesses. Step on their throats when given the opportunity. You know, all the sports cliches. Look, Rice isn't a good football team this year. That's not a secret. The Dogs didn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence when they played another bad team in UTEP a few weeks ago. But if they simply "make the routine plays; pick the ball up and throw it to first," as Skip Holtz loves to say, they'll win this game.
2) Run the Football
Last week in Starkville, the good Dogs actually had a bit of success on the ground against a tough Mississippi State defense. Rice's defense is not even really comparable to State's. Rice is currently ranked 86th in the nation in rushing yards allowed, giving up nearly 180 yards on the ground per game. I expect Kam McKnight to keep running angrily, and hopefully Dancy and Tucker can bounce back from injuries nicely in this game. Ideally, the Dogs will lean on the run enough to force Rice into the box, which would open up the passing game a bit. J'Mar and the receivers have struggled lately, but with some success on the ground, they might be able to get something going through the air as well.
3) Win Third Down
This one could technically fit under #1, but I'll go into more advanced stats here to explain why Tech should have an advantage on third downs against the Owls. Bill Connelly's S&P+ metrics include a breakdown of how often teams find themselves in third-and-short vs. third-and-long situations. Further, it gives a "success rate" in each of those situations. So far this year, Rice's offense has only found itself in third-and-short 5.2% of the time (123rd, FBS). That's good news for Tech, because when Rice faces third-and-short, they have converted 100% of the time. I don't have to tell you--the discerning Tech fan--that it doesn't get much better than 100%. On the flip side, Tech's defense is ranked in the top half of holding opponents in all third down situations. Rice ends up with 4+ yards on most of their third down attempts. The Dogs are currently allowing just 23% of third-and-long conversions and 42% of third-and-medium conversions, good for 53rd and 27th, respectively. If Tech can keep Rice's third down attempts out of the "short" range, they'll be able to get off the field against the Owls.
Evan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to follow @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter for more!
