Three Keys to Victory | UNT
It may be mid-September, but we've got a pivotal, must-win game this Saturday at the Joe. The Bulldogs have taken care of business as we expected so far this season - how can they match last year's win total here in game four?
Take advantage
Through two games, UNT's defense has been an insult to defenses everywhere. If you look at regular stats, advanced stats, and everything in between - you're hard-pressed to find categories the Mean Green aren't dead last in.
After Hank Bachmeier completed just 9 passes in 18 attempts against NSU last weekend, I know we're all chomping at the bit for Tech to sling it a bit more. But hear me out: UNT's pass defense is real bad (119th in yards per game), but their run defense is downright putrid. The Mean Green's swap to a 3-3-5 has not taken hold, and they're giving up 292 yards per game!
So yes, let's sling it. But I want to see what Keith Willis Jr. can do against a defense that just might be worse than NSU's was last weekend.
Limit big plays
Swapping over to the Mean Green offense, things start to look a little bit more scary. Which is to say, they're not the WORST team in all of college football. In most categories, they're about middle-of-the-pack.
That's interesting, because their stable of running backs/Tech killers from a season ago hasn't really looked great on the ground, and they're stuck in a QB battle that both Stone Earle and Chandler Rogers seem uninterested in winning.
While the scoreboard hasn't been kind to them so far, UNT has found some success in moving the ball down field in large chunks. They've had long touchdown receptions in both losses so far (Ja'Mori Maclin and Damon Ward are of particular interest here). In all, their "explosiveness" rating - which measures the average expected points added on "successful" plays - is 1.97 in the passing game. That's pretty decent, and means that regardless of the QB, they'll try to push the ball down field. Just something Willie Roberts & co. will need to be ready for.
Playmakers
Coming out of the Week 0 matchup with FIU, it seemed like Smoke Harris might run away with the CUSA offensive player of the year award. After catching 11 balls for 155 yards in that game, he's gotten progressively "colder" in each week: 7 for 47, then 2 for 9. You might argue that we didn't need him against NSU, something simply wasn't working. With all the injuries at the outside WR position, t's time for Smoke to step up and be the leader that this offense needs.
Defensively, I love what Michael Richard is doing as a true freshman... and I just want to see more of it. UNT's quarterbacks have combined for 5 INTs through two games, and we've got a ballhawking freshman that seems to be in the right place at the right time. I'm a fan of that combo!
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Evan also writes for go tech pls dont die - check them out at gtpdd.dog and on Twitter at @gotechplsdntdie