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Published Dec 21, 2018
Three Keys to Victory: Hawaii Bowl Edition
Evan Spencer  •  BleedTechBlue
Staff Writer
Twitter
@EvanRSpencer

Each week, we take a look into the weekend's matchup and try to pinpoint three things Louisiana Tech needs to do to win. The Dogs are out in the Aloha State for a bowl week matchup with the Hawaii Warriors at 9:30 PM. How can Tech make it five straight bowl wins?

1) Pass Defense

In order for Tech to win the Hawaii Bowl and make it five straight bowl wins, the pass defense will need to be stout. As most of you know from reading my three keys posts all year, I'm a fan of Bill Connelly's S&P+ advanced stat profiles. Hawaii's passing offense, according to that metric, is pretty dang good. They rank 37th overall, 21st in efficiency, and 37th in explosiveness. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that they rank 70th in passing completion rate (59.3%). So when Hawaii completes passes, they are explosive and efficient. The good news is that Tech's pass defense is at least marginally prepared for such an attack. They rank 49th in overall S&P+ pass defense. Be on the lookout for Warrior WRs Ursua and Byrd. They have over 250 targets and over 150 catches between them. Sneed and Robertson will have their work cut out for them. But slowing these two and Warrior QB Cole McDonald may be the only way to defeat the Bows.

2) Just do something--anything--offensively

I feel like this one doesn't need much explaining. For much of the year (the entire month of November, really), Tech's offense looked flatly terrible or terribly flat, take your pick. To beat Hawaii in their home stadium, you'd better bring your offense. At home this season, the Warriors put up an average of 33.5 points per game. Tech scored more than that exactly one time this season--September 8th against Southern. So yeah, the offense had better figure some things out, and fast. There's good news, though: Hawaii has the 117th ranked S&P+ rush defense, and the 121st ranked S&P+ passing defense. Tech should be able to move the ball, but I'm not overly confident in their ability to score with Hawaii.

3) Record Setter

This isn't necessarily a key to victory, but boy would it be great to see Jaylon Ferguson go out on top. I was at the New Orleans Bowl in 2015 when Kenneth Dixon broke the all-time record for touchdowns scored. We went CRAZY in the stands. For a recent piece I wrote on go tech pls don't die, I looked at each of Tech's 10 previous bowl games. I'd be hard-pressed to think of a better moment than Dixon breaking the record with his jersey missing numbers because of how hard it was to tackle him that night. To think that Tech could have another player break a significant NCAA record just three years later is absurd! Hawaii is allowing sacks on 7.1% of dropbacks (81st in the country), so there should be some opportunities for Sack Daddy. So Jaylon, if you're reading this (you're not), go out and get your sacks. We're rooting for you!



Evan also writes for gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to follow @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter for more!