Tomorrow night, the Bulldogs head west to take on the... surprisingly 5-1 UTEP Miners. You read that right, UTEP stands on the brink of bowl eligibility in just the 7th game of their season. What can Tech do in El Paso to delay the gold rush just a little bit longer?
1) Limit big plays
As my good buddy Nathan covered earlier this week, UTEP's offense is bad... until it's not. Particularly in the passing game. You see, UTEP is going to try to establish a running game, and they're okay at that: their 175.3 ypg is 49th in the nation. On paper, their passing attack is pretty bad. They average just 212 ypg (89th in the nation). A lot of that has to do with the fact that signal caller Gavin Hardison is completing just 59.5% of his throws. But when he does find his receiver, look out! The Miners average 18.5 yards per completion! That's insanity! But that's also how UTEP has won games so far this season. On 70 of Hardison's 122 attempts, he's thrown the ball at least 10+ yards down the field. On deep passes (20+ yards), he's connected 12 times for 544 total yards (over 45 yards per completion, as Ben pointed out!)... But he's also thrown 5 INTs. So perhaps it's not enough to limit the big plays, but Tech should bait Hardison into throwing deep when they've got the play read!
2) Play to OUR strengths
Coming into our matchup, UTEP currently sports the #15 overall defense in the nation. That's pretty wild! In Tech's last game, they faced off against the #6 overall defense in NC State, and our offense performed admirably, putting up nearly 500 yards of offense! Let me be the first to say that UTEP ain't NC State, either. While NC State was playing and beating Clemson, UTEP knocked off the mighty Lobos of New Mexico. Forgive me for not being overly impressed by UTEP's rankings when they've played the 128th toughest schedule in the nation!
Anyway, what Tech needs to do is beat UTEP's defense by doing what we do best - passing the football. The Bulldogs find themselves in the interesting position of having almost too many weapons out wide in Emilus, Harris x2, and Means. Meanwhile, the only running back that's even moderately impressive so far this year is Marcus Williams. But it's not just the eye test here, the advanced metrics back it up too. Tech is successful on 42.1% of passing plays, compared to only 30.5% of rushing plays. I know that Coach Holtz will likely try desperately to establish the run in this game, and that's great. But if it's not there... Just take to the air!
3) Get off the field
I love it when a defense does its job and forces the offense into a third and unlikely situation. Tech's defense so far this season hasn't been great at limiting opponents' success on first and second downs... by advanced stat metrics, opponents have been 79% successful on first and second downs against Tech. But on third and fourth down, the Bulldogs tighten up, holding opponents to a success rate of just 35%. The more traditional stats back that up, too. Tech currently allows a third down conversion on 41% of attempts (88th, so Not Great) and allows a conversion rate of just 27% on 4th down (11th). The key here is that UTEP's offense is near the bottom of the barrel on 1st and second down (61% successful, 116th in the nation). Because of those bad numbers on early downs, UTEP has struggled to convert third downs this season (34%, 107th). Tech will need to take advantage of that trend to keep the Miners in third and long situations that cause Gavin Hardison to make mistakes. Get off the field when UTEP inevitably puts themselves in a bad situation, and we'll win easily!
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Evan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter, play the gtpdd Contest and CUSA Pick'Em, and listen to the gtpdd Podcast!
