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Published Oct 10, 2023
Three Keys to Victory | MTSU
Evan Spencer  •  BleedTechBlue
Staff Writer
Twitter
@EvanRSpencer

The Bulldogs need to win.

It's as simple as that. Tech is 3-4, and has shown flashes of being a decent team. What can they do to put it all together against all odds on a Tuesday night in Murfreesboro?

Slow and Steady? NO.

It's no secret that in football (or really... any sport?) you shouldn't give your opponents a head start. Unfortunately, in several games this season Tech has done just that. We'll look terrible in the first quarter on both sides of the ball and let our enemy out to a double-digit lead before we're even off the bus.

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The numbers don't lie: Tech has been outscored by an average of 24-7 in the first halves of our four losses this season. Whatever the reason is, it cannot happen in Murfreesboro tonight if we want a chance to win the ballgame. Tech needs to get off the bus ready to rumble. If not as a key to victory, how about as a key to "keeping the fanbase engaged for the evening"?

Pass the Rock

Most weeks, one of my keys to victory has been "run the rock". Even though Tech has struggled at times to be consistent in the running game, we've played some really bad run defenses in recent weeks.

This week isn't too different. Middle's run defense currently ranks 76th overall, allowing 145 yards per game on the ground. The key difference here is that unlike other teams we've played, MTSU's pass defense is worse than their run defense - ranked 100th nationally.

When we dive into some advanced stats, the picture becomes more clear: On running plays, MTSU's opponents are adding an expected 0.127 points per play. On passes, that number balloons up to 0.368. That means that for every pass against MTSU, opponents are expected to add over double that of every run. MTSU is also giving up a lot of explosive plays through the air, something the Bulldogs have thrived on this season.

Good, clean fun

One of the keys to winning any football game is to keep the ball in your own players' hands. Luckily for Tech, that's not something Rick Stockstill and the gang have instilled in the Blue Raiders this season.

Through 6 games, MTSU ranks 129th in turnover margin per game (-1.6). You might say, "But Evan, they played Alabama and Mizzou!" And you would be correct. But in their last three games, all against G5 opponents, their turnover margin has been -2.0! They've actually gotten WORSE at holding onto the ball now that they're not playing SEC foes.

Last week against Jax State, MTSU's QB threw 2 INTs and lost a fumble. And if you look at Ben's Scouting Report on Vattiato, he makes mistakes whether you pressure him or not. So this key comes down to one thing: When MTSU makes mistakes, be there to capitalize on them. In our game with Nebraska earlier this year, we were almost lucky on several near-turnovers. Let's get lucky tonight!

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Evan also writes for go tech pls dont die - check them out at gtpdd.dog and on Twitter at @gotechplsdntdie